I'm reluctant to comment on this, but the past 24 hours in Lebanon have seen some strange and interesting twists: There have been protests all day long. The government has resigned. The Syrian regime is badly exposed and cornered. And a Pentagon source is quoted as saying, “Likely, Syria's meddling in Iraq and the upcoming Lebanese elections will provide sufficient trigger for some 'coalition' action. That action may well have an 'Iraqi' face.”

My prediction? The Syrians will blink. I have no idea what that might mean for the region. As my foreign policy friends are quick to say, as soon as you think you've got something figured out, it all goes in a different direction.

Here's some very interesting commentary and predictions from someone way smarter than me.