Doing what they do best, the Iranians have seized 15 members of the British Navy. An escalation, a provocation, and business as usual, all in one.

This is more complicated than it appears, and it appears pretty complicated. Don't miss this must-read analysis on what Tehran is thinking and planning, and be sure to check out Belmont's comment about how a simple provocation puts all the pressure on the challenged party to properly respond.

The Pajamas team has a full round-up of coverage...